The Road to Reunification

From the 1960s to the late 1990s, Irish republicans and Ulster unionists waged a sectarian-nationalist conflict in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles. Unionists, composed of the U.K. government and police forces and the Protestant majority, desired Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom. Republicans, represented most prominently by the Provincial Irish Republican Army (IRA) wanted to reunify Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. Divided along religious and political lines, “peace walls” barricaded Catholic republican and Protestant loyalist communities in Belfast. Shootings, bombings, and assassinations were common in Northern Ireland. In total, 3,720 were killed as a result of the conflict.¹

Fr. Edward Daly waving a bloody handkerchief on “Bloody Sunday” became an iconic image from the Troubles.²

In 1994, the Provisional IRA declared a ceasefire, effectively ending most of the violence. Subsequently, the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998. The Good Friday Agreement enabled the return of local rule in Northern Ireland by revising institutional structures and decommissioning paramilitary groups, leading to a steep reduction in violence.³ More recently, however, Brexit complicated the power-sharing arrangement, threatening to rupture the tenuous relations between Catholic nationalists and Protestant unionists. Catalyzed by the fear of past tensions and armed conflict as well as concerns regarding the free movement of trade and persons, Ireland is on a track toward reunification.

The Effect of the European Union and Brexit on Northern Irish Relations

The European Union was created to integrate European economies and avert future conflicts post-World War II. In short, it formed a European common market system, which enabled the free movement of trade, services, capital, and individuals within the E.U., removing national bureaucratic and legal barriers.⁴ Britain and the Republic of Ireland were part of this entity, and the E.U. system was successful in maintaining political stability in Northern Ireland after the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement.⁵ The E.U. allowed Ireland and the U.K. to manage the difficult balancing act of maintaining peace in Northern Ireland. However, in January 2020, Britain departed from the E.U., which became known as Brexit. Little clamor for major constitutional changes in Northern Ireland was taken seriously, until the Brexit vote.

After Brexit, the United Kingdom rebuilt the national barriers that had been demolished by the European Union. However, the U.K. made provisions for how Northern Ireland would be dealt with, weighing both the U.K.’s desire to reclaim sovereignty and the destabilizing effects of a hard border. The U.K. and Ireland devised the “Northern Ireland Protocol” to maintain the soft border between the states. In contrast to a hard border, a soft border circumvents checkpoints that could complicate trade and allays the prospect of resurgent sectarian tensions and renewed violence.⁶ It mandates customs checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain rather than at the Irish border, enabling the continuation of the open border policy.⁷ In effect, the border is now the Irish Sea, with both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland integrated into a single market as part of the E.U. Though the structural status quo prior to Brexit remains, the ground has shifted, as customs checks between the North and Republic are in greater accord than those between the North and the rest of the U.K. In the eyes of republicans and unionists alike, Northern Ireland’s trade arrangements are more connected to Ireland than the U.K.

The Northern Ireland Protocol.⁸

The Fear of the Past

The fear of the past is the foundation of the Good Friday Agreement and for a united Ireland. Since 1998, the guiding principle of Northern Irish relations is to not rock the boat. Northern Ireland is widely recognized for how far it has come, achieving relative stability. This stability was primarily a result of the soft border between the North and South, enabled by the E.U. 's free movement principle and local awareness of past tensions and conflicts. The national and local players deciding the state’s future understand the consequences if relations deteriorate. Most agree that the previous state of affairs was nonviable. Thus, concerted efforts have been made to preclude the emergence of sources of conflict.

The principle of neutralizing sources of conflict contributed to the most integrated Ireland in generations. Economically, Ireland has been reforged with a border in the Irish Sea. Politically, the unthinkable has happened. Sinn Féin, the former political wing of the IRA, holds a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly. A plurality of unionists, who still desire a harder border with Ireland and closer relations with Great Britain, oppose the Protocol and are increasingly against a united Ireland.⁹ The Democratic Unionist Party, the former majority party and main unionist party in Northern Ireland, is in shambles following recent electoral losses and an inability to move past the Brexit vote.¹⁰

Groundwork for Reunification

At its most foundational level, reunification is pragmatic. As the Northern Ireland Protocol cemented the island’s status as a conglomerate in terms of its flow of trade and persons, it must also grapple with amalgamating two distinct governments. Although Sinn Féin is the majority party in the North, it is the primary opposition party in the Republic. Ireland’s parliament is currently controlled by an unprecedented coalition government between Ireland’s largest parties: Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are traditional rivals in the parliament and both more conservative than Sinn Féin. However, they are unabashedly republican parties that support a united Ireland through consensus between the North and South.¹¹ In short, the major parties in government that can bring about reunification are in place.

Furthermore, the demographics of Northern Ireland have shifted toward reunification. The number of Catholics, who tend to identify as nationalist, in Northern Ireland has been rising steadily for decades. In 2021, Catholics overtook Protestants as 45.7% of the population, making them the majority in Northern Ireland for the first time in its history.¹² Additionally, polls suggest younger voters are more likely to support reunification and Sinn Féin.¹³ If these trends continue, the consensus necessary for a successful referendum will emerge.

Moreover, there are practical reasons for reunification. The Republic of Ireland touts lower poverty rates, higher educational attainment, and greater life expectancy than the North.¹⁴ Northern Ireland has increasingly fallen under scrutiny for the dismal state of its public services, with an ongoing crisis in health service.¹⁵ In contrast to the U.K.’s impotent post-Covid economy, Ireland developed a sovereign wealth fund using the budget surplus it has accrued.¹⁶ By no means would it be a seamless transition. The Republic would have to designate funds to address the economic deficiencies of the North and properly incorporate it into its structure of public services, institutions, and its economy. Regardless, the marked contrasts with the North in terms of economic and social services make the Republic a desirable source of stability.

The Future of Reunification

Despite the trend toward reunification, a referendum has yet to be called since Brexit. However, caution must be advised. The leading Irish parties fear a referendum could exacerbate tensions. Instead, they advocate for studies on the potential integration of the two states.¹⁷ Ireland should not rush into reunification but rather allow the sentiment to foment.

A “peace wall” in the Catholic area of Belfast graffitied “Unity in our Time.”¹⁸

It is undeniable there will be broad ramifications from reunification. The most pressing will be reconciliation between the Republic and the six northern counties. Border tensions mostly abated following the Good Friday Agreement, but reunification would require inter-communal dialogue to foster a stable national society. The current situation is a stopgap to generations of sectarian conflict, but reunification could realize Ireland’s full potential.

Informed by the island’s fraught history of sectarian conflict during the Troubles, Ireland is poised for reunification due to the growing estrangement of Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K. following Brexit and the appeal of Ireland’s social services and economic stability. The protocols that followed Brexit in order to retain a soft border have alienated Northern Ireland economically and stirred sentiment toward a united Ireland. This complication has drawn greater attention to recent demographic shifts in Northern Ireland in favor of nationalists, as well as the economic and administrative contrasts between the North and South. The strength of the Republic’s economic position will likely result in more favorable opinions of its governmental capacity compared to the North. The convergence of these developments makes Irish reunification appear far from the dream that it once was and ever more like an inevitability.

Bibliography

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CAIN Archive. “Fact Sheet for the Conflict In and About Northern Ireland.” Accessed October 21, 2024. https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/victims/docs/group/htr/day_of_reflection/htr_0607c.pdf.

Campbell, John. Map of the UK Showing how Goods Travelling from GB into NI and Onward to the Republic of Ireland. Photograph. BBC News, July 6, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-62067839.

Duffy, Rónán. “Q+A: Here's Where the Parties Stand on a United Ireland and Holding a Border Poll.” The Journal, February 6, 2020. https://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-audit-4993911-Feb2020/.

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Simpson, Mark, and Darran Marshall. “Census 2021: More from Catholic Background in NI than Protestant.” BBC News NI, September 22, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-62980394.

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1. “CAIN Archive Fact Sheet,” Ulster University, accessed October 21, 2024, https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/victims/docs/group/htr/day_of_reflection/htr_0607c.pdf.

2. Fr. Edward Daly Waves a White Handkerchief as Jackie Duddy is Carried Away on Bloody Sunday, 30 January 1972, photograph, BBC News, August 8, 2016, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-37007791.

3. Charles Landow and James McBride, “Moving Past the Troubles: The Future of Northern Ireland Peace,” Council on Foreign Relations, February 16, 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/moving-past-troubles-future-northern-ireland-peace#chapter-title-0-10.

4. “Single Market,” European Union, accessed November 5, 2024, https://european-union.europa.eu/priorities-and-actions/actions-topic/single-market_en.

5. James McBride, “How Does the European Union Work?,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 11, 2022, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/how-does-european-union-work.

6. Landow and McBride, “Moving Past the Troubles.”

7. Landow and McBride, “Moving Past the Troubles.”

8. John Campbell, Map of the UK Showing how Goods Travelling from GB into NI and Onward to the Republic of Ireland, photograph, BBC News, July 6, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-62067839.

9. Katy Hayward, “A Growing Majority in Northern Ireland Think Brexit has Increased the Likelihood of a United Ireland,” Queen’s University Belfast, May 26, 2022, https://www.qub.ac.uk/News/Allnews/2022/majority-northern-ireland-brexit-united-ireland.html.

10. Shawn Pogatchnik, “Sinn Féin Dominates Northern Ireland with Unionists in Post-Brexit Shambles,” Politico.eu, July 5, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/sinn-fein-win-northern-ireland-republican-brexit-uk-parliament-election/.

11. Rónán Duffy, “Q+A: Here's Where the Parties Stand on a United Ireland and Holding a Border Poll,” The Journal, February 6, 2020, https://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-audit-4993911-Feb2020/.

12. Mark Simpson and Darran Marshall, “Census 2021: More from Catholic Background in NI than Protestant,” BBC News NI, September 22, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-62980394.

13. Megan K. Stack, “Is Ireland Headed for a Merger?,” New York Times, November 21, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/opinion/united-ireland.html.

14. Stack, “Is Ireland Headed for a Merger?”

15. Sam McBride, “NI’s Frightening Decay is Breaking Public Services – and Breaking People,” Belfast Telegraph, September 23, 2023, https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/sam-mcbride/nis-frightening-decay-is-breaking-public-services-and-breaking-people/a854868117.html?=123.

16. Stack, “Is Ireland Headed for a Merger?”

17. Duffy, “Where the Parties Stand.”

18. Rhiannon Adam, Under a Bright Cloudy Sky, Along a Road, Multicolor Murals on a Wall Topped with Barbed Wire Show a Man Holding a Green Flag with an Irish Harp next to the Words “Unity in our Time,” photograph, New York Times, November 21, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/opinion/united-ireland.html.